That means subscription streaming has not increased in price for two decades. Competing services coming into the market ever since have all held to the same price point (more or less) for their core single-user offering. Today’s default market price was effectively set in stone in the early 2000s by Rhapsody (now rebranded as Napster) at $9.99 a month. The elephant in the room is pricing – or, more specifically, the services’ reluctance to increase the cost of a basic subscription. Then when discounts, telco bundles and multi-users accounts (such as family packages) are factored in, the ARPU plummets further. For the freemium services, their ad-supported side has a tendency to drag down the ARPU (average revenue per user) of all users. Ultimately, these numbers only give one perspective on growth in the market here – distilling it down to pure user numbers, not looking at total revenues. They are better approached as snapshots of the optimism – or the pessimism – defining the business today and how certain brands continue to glow for consumers while others start to fade in relevance or see their edges dulled. When one holds forecasts from a decade or more ago up to the light of today they often crumble into dust.īut rather than dismiss all forecasts as doomed enterprises, it is perhaps better to have them stand as a marker for the confidence (or the lack of confidence) currently coursing through the veins of a certain sector of the business.

Forecasting market growth in the music business has always been an undertaking fraught with incredible risk.

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